Advantage Player Blackjack Tracking and Analysis System

Blackjack Science recognized that there are few, if any, tracking systems for Blackjack AP play available for sale. Those that do exist in the market fall short of providing the type of data and analysis desired.

Having managed a large team, we used QFIT's products to design our teams blackjack playing protocols. QFIT’s suite of products are the “gold standard” in game evaluation and planning based on their in depth simulations. There products provides results and game metrics for a wide variety of games. 

We wanted to be able to contrast our actual play with the projected results provided by CVCX. Critical metrics of frequency distribution, win loss rates and standard deviations by true count for these games were determined to be strategic components to an effective tracking and analysis system.  Building a system to provide these comparison became the answer.

We also found this methodology requires a disciplined and detailed approach by the player for session reporting. It became clear that the results from such a system would provide a much more accurate depiction of EV and the other critical metrics and provides for both individual session analysis and cumulative analysis.

We then developed this system that is based on the game metrics provided by QFIT's product CVCX. Using CVCX data, we created a “library” of games for use that contains the frequency distribution, win/loss percentage and standard deviation provided at each true count. With this data as the foundation, we are able to calculate CVCX "like" results for each actual session recorded. Our library is based on HiLo with full indexes but the system could be easily adapted to any count system and game structure provided by CVCX. Much of the design of this system evolved from our experience at building, and using, the system described for a team that recorded over 3,500 sessions. This subset designed for individual use provides detailed data needed to support proper accounting and to measure your results against the CVCX metrics both by session and by cumulative play.

We believe this system provides far superior information for the "lone wolf" to manage his attack.

Additionally, players using an alternative count system and desiring to use this system, should contact Blackjack Science for instruction on adding those games to the "Game Library".

Generally, all session data is entered directly in the "Sessions Tracking" tab shown below or by clicking the “Sessions Entry" button on the Sessions Tracking page. This form “insulates” the user from excel and provides both a simple method of recording actual sessions but also a summary of the sessions results and of the cumulative results in the system.

Another function, “Game Model”, is available by clicking the button shown on the "Sessions Tracking" tab. By utilizing our game library ("Game Library") and bet ramp ("Bet Ramp Library"), we are able to specify the other needed parameters and get projected results. This presents a  powerful tool for reviewing actual play or planning future plays.

The player also has the  Expense.Bankroll Log ("Expense.Bankroll Log"), the Dealer Log ("Dealer Log") and the Back Off Log ("Backoff Log") to allow record keeping of various events and ancillary financial activity.

Shown below are the primary screenshots and descriptions for the system. Also provided is an instructional web video on the systems use that describes the detailed operation of the system.


TAB: Sessions Tracking  (1 of 2)

The above  screenshot is the input screen for session entry. Here is the background on each column required.

  1. Column A -  Player initials. The system only does analysis and reporting on one user but your are free to add other players' initials and sessions as you wish.
  2. Play type - Play type is used to allow you to group certain sessions that you would like to analyze. You may define your play types in the options tab ("Options"). Default types are:
    • BP = Indicates you are entering games at a positive TC,BP type is used by the system to  identify "wonging in" play typically used by teams. The system adjusts the frequency distribution when BP is specified and with the Wong options selected in the options tab ("Options").
    • Spot = Indicates you are playing as a spotter for a BP
    • AllPlay = Indicates you are starting at the top of a shoe in multi-deck and double deck games.
  3. Date of Play = Date of play
  4. Start Time= Time session started. Not used for anything but information. This system is driven by rounds played not by hours played but such information is important.
  5. Actual =  Results in dollars for this session.
  6. Game = Abbreviation for the game model from the Game Library to be used with this session. Game model names are "coded" to provide easy selection for the rules, penetration, number of decks and Index level of the game being played. All games are based on HiLo full indexes using CVCX by Qfit.com as the source.
  7. Unit = Indicates the smallest unit for betting.
  8. Bet Ramp = Indicates the name of the bet ramp used for this session. Bet ramps are designed and recorded in a data base and then selected as appropriate when used.
  9. Wong Out % = Estimate for the percent of rounds the player avoided negative counts. Example: if the player thinks he missed 25% of the negative counts then he would enter 25 here. The system will adjust the frequency distributions of rounds played by reducing the negative counts used when calculating EV and other metrics. This option is not available in wong-in situations.
  10. Round Played =  Number of rounds (not hands) played during the session. Due to the volatility of hands per hour in all the games, we use rounds played as a more accurate measure of the game being recorded. If assistance is needed in estimating this, then please contact me. BP's are expected to count their rounds and to report them accurately. A "Rounds Calculator" is provided in the "Options" tab.
  11. Spots played - indicates how many spots you were playing during the session. This has an effect on the variance (more spots , same amount bet = less variance) but no effect on EV. If you have a question concerning the impact ,  please contact the author.
  12. Casino - This is a drop down list of over 700 casinos in the US to assist you in choosing the casino at which you played.

TAB: Session Tracking ( Session Entry)

The Session Entry form (accessed by clicking the Session Entry button on the Session Tracking tab) is an alternative means of entering new sessions rather than direct entry into the Sessions Tracking tab and in analyzing the results of the new session and of the cumulative sessions in the system. See the video at the bottom of this page for details about field entry and results.


TAB: Sessions Screenshot (2 of 2)

This screenshot is the information generated by your sessions. The data show corresponds to the data in the previous screen shot. That is the information provided in row four of the previous screen shot generated the results shown here on line four for that session. Description by column follows:


  1. EV = Expected Value is the amount of gain (or loss) calculated by the model for this session and based on your input.
  2. EV Rate per Round = Is the EV for each round played in this session
  3. EV Rate per hour - Calculated based on the hands per hour rates specified in the options tab.
  4. Session Advantage = Is the calculated percentage advantage based on the game model used in conjunction with the bet ramp used and counting system used.
  5. Rounds at TC +1 = If the session was a "wong in" then this is the percentage  of rounds that would be expected to have a TC that is one or higher.
  6. Avg Bet = Based on the chosen bet ramp and the game model, this is the average bet made during this session.
  7. Max Bet = Maximum bet specified by the bet ramp.
  8. House Edge = Information only indication of the house edge of the game selected.
  9. SD = Standard deviation for this session using this model and bet ramp.
  10. 1Hi, 1Lo, 2Hi, 2Lo, 3 Hi, 3 Lo = one, two and three standard deviation amounts for hi and low and for this session. If the actual results for the session are positive and outside the standard deviation range then the cell background will be green. if the actual was positive and more than the SD. The cell background will be red if it is negative and outside the standard deviation.
  11. 1,2,3 = These columns indicate if the actual result was outside of the 1, 2, or 3 SD amounts.
  12. N0 @ 2 SD = Number of rounds required for the cumulative EV to equal 2 negative standard deviations. At this point you have a 95% probability of being ahead.
  13. Cumulative Z-Score for sessions to date
  14. Z-Score for this session

TAB: Sessions Tracking - Game Model button

 

 

The Game Model form provides the ability to construct any game defined in the game library and to run a simulation on the possible results. See video at end for details.


TAB: Expense+Bankroll Log

This screenshot is the tab for recording deposits and withdrawals to the bankroll as well as detailed expense categories. This information is used in producing a profit and loss statement and in tracking your bankroll balance and activity.


TAB: P&L

This tab and report are automatically updated as you add or change information in the session log or the expense log.

The top area is a typical profit and loss report with revenue shown by type of blackjack play and the bottom presenting data regarding EV, number of sessions and rounds.

At the top of the sheet is a yellow cell that controls the starting date of the report. Changing that to 6/12/2015 would mean the subsequent 12 months would then be shown. The first month data would only show the days after the specified start date. The far right column provides the summary totals for all data in the system.


TAB: Bankroll Management

Also provided automatically, is a running daily total of your bankroll with details of the daily changes affecting your balance. Transfers into and out of your bankroll (logged in the expense tab), Blackjack results, and expenses. Also , the risk of ruin position at the end of each day based on cumulative play is provided. The graph is provided to give you a visual of how your bankroll is performing. Do not confuse this with how your blackjack is going as this chart is affected by deposit's and withdrawals and expense's in addition to your blackjack result's. A graph shown later will allow you to focus on how the blackjack is doing.

You should note that the top date on the report is always today and it pushes the information down as we go forward in time. The system can accommodate about 500 days of data.


TAB: Game Analysis

This tab and screenshot provides an analysis of the sessions in the system with a wide variety of metrics providing an insight not easily acquired with any other tracking system. Additionally the cells in the left column highlighted in yellow provides drop down list with the ability for you to select an individual blackjack game, a casino, or a player and see how play is by either.


TAB: Performance Window

And finally, my favorite visual is the screen shot and tab shown above. It provides a wealth of insight into the statistical results of your play. Refer to Video Analysis of Blackjack Play for background and explanations of the data provided.


Not shown are the tabs containing the following information.

Game Library - Contains 255 HiLo Full Index games with varying rules and penetrations

Bet Ramps - User defined and named bet ramps depicting units bet at each true count. Bet ramps are assigned to sessions when actual results are recorded.

Casino - 700+ US casinos with accumulated data regarding any sessions that have been recorded by the player. Casinos are also matched with a session when actual results are recorded.

Options - User options for Kelly bet values, hands per hour rates by number of decks, wong in play options, parameters to estimated comp value earned, and informational tables on game advantages and what games are in the Game Library.

Cumulative Log - Various cumulative totals used for various statistics and reporting elsewhere in the system.

Dealer Log - Area to record notes and comments about various dealers

Back Off Log - Area to record those fun filled moments of terror in all their details.